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Probability
└── Homework
    └── W1
        └── Q2.tex

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\documentclass{article}
\usepackage{amsmath}
\usepackage{amssymb}
\usepackage{geometry}
\geometry{a4paper, margin=1in}
\begin{document}

\title{Statistical Analysis of Fraser River Flow Data (1912-1999)}
\author{}
\date{}
\maketitle

\section{Analysis of Mean and Median Flow}

\subsection{Sample Size}
Let the number of samples be:
\begin{equation}
    n=88
\end{equation}

Let the data in time order be:
\begin{equation}
    x_1 = 3,360,\quad x_2 = 2,884,\,...,\,x_i,\,...,\,x_n = 3,465,\quad i \in \{1,2,...,n\}
\end{equation}

\subsection{Mean Calculation}
The mean flow is given by:
\begin{equation}
    \bar{x} = \frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^{n}x_i = \frac{238,719}{88} \approx 2,712.716
\end{equation}

\subsection{Median Calculation}
Ordering the data in ascending order:
\begin{equation}
    x_{a_1} = 2,012,\quad x_{a_2} = 2,027,\,...,\,x_{a_{i_a}},\,...,\,x_{a_n} = 3,715,\quad i_a \in \{1,2,...,n\}
\end{equation}

The index of the median is computed as:
\begin{equation}
    i_{a_m} = \frac{n+1}{2} = 44.5 = \frac{44+45}{2}
\end{equation}

Thus, the median flow is:
\begin{equation}
    m = x_{a_{i_{a_m}}} = \frac{x_{a_{44}}+x_{a_{45}}}{2} = 2,664.5
\end{equation}

\noindent \textbf{Summary of Results:}
\begin{itemize}
    \item Mean Flow: $\bar{x} = 2,712.716$
    \item Median Flow: $m = 2,664.5$
\end{itemize}

\section{Trend Analysis over Time}

\subsection{Mean Year Calculation}
Let the time sequence be:
\begin{equation}
    t_1=1912,\, t_2=1913,\,...,t_i,\,t_n=1999,\quad i \in \{1,2,...,n\}
\end{equation}

The mean year is computed as:
\begin{equation}
    \bar{t} = \frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^{n}t_i = \frac{172,084}{88} \approx 1955.5
\end{equation}

\subsection{Covariance Calculation}
The covariance between time and flow is given by:
\begin{equation}
    \sigma_{tx} = \frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^{n}t_i x_i - \bar{t} \bar{x} = \frac{1,103,545}{880} \approx 1,254.028 > 0
\end{equation}

Since $\sigma_{tx} > 0$, we conclude that the mean flow has been increasing over time.

\noindent \textbf{Conclusion:} The mean flow of the Fraser River shows an increasing trend over the period from 1912 to 1999.

\end{document}